Introduction The Central African Republic (CAR) is a landlocked country in the Central Africa Region. Since December 2012, the nation has been embroiled in a brutal civil war that has killed over 13,000 people and displaced over 700,000 people (although data can be unreliable) and has held back progress in developing the country. The war has been fought primarily between government and rebel forces and has involved a multitude of outside powers, such as Russia’s Wagner Group and France.

The CAR is one of the least developed countries in the world. It frequently ranks near, if not at, the bottom of most international rankings on statistics like GDP per capita, happiness, quality of life or Human Development Index (HDI). This is despite the fact that it is home to vast mineral resource reserves. The war has been a significant factor in producing this situation. This report shall attempt to explain the current situation and encourage action in response to it.

Background The events that led to the current conflict can be traced to 2001, when the Army Chief of Staff, François Bozizé, began an armed rebellion against the then president, Ange-Félix Patassé. In 2003, while Patassé was attending a regional summit in Niger, Bozizé’s forces captured the country’s capital, Bangui, allowing him to take power as president. This triggered a conflict known as the Central African Republic Bush War, when the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) group, which opposed Bozizé’s ascension to the presidency, began fighting back against the government.

The war came to an end as the result of a peace treaty in 2007, however, just a few years later in December 2012, a coalition of rebel forces known as Seleka began fighting after condemning the government for failing to abide by the agreements of the treaty. They successfully captured Bangui in 2013, deposing Bozizé and establishing their leader, Michel Djotodia, as president, but fighting continued as rebel groups of predominantly Christians called Anti-Balaka fought against the new Muslim government. Djotodia resigned and disbanded Seleka in 2013, and was succeeded by Catherine Samba-Panza, the country’s first female president.

In 2014, a ceasefire agreement was signed between the competing factions, which resulted in the country being split between the Anti-Balaka in the south and west and the ex-Seleka group (former Seleka members) controlling the north and east. After Samba-Panza's term ended in 2016, Faustin-Archange Touadéra was elected president. Touadéra was reelected in 2020, however the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), an alliance of different factions led by former President Bozizé was formed to dispute the results of the election, and the fighting between the government and the CPC has constituted the war since then. While much of the conflict is over religion and ethnicity, particularly the fight between Christians and Muslims, control of natural resources is a significant factor as well.

Impacts The war has resulted in numerous social, economic, political and environmental impacts that have been to the detriment of the Central African peoples’ wellbeing. The CAR only has a population of around 5 million, but it is estimated that around 1.1 million people have been forced to flee their homes in one way or another. The data for casualties in the conflict is unreliable, but it is known that at least 13,594 people have been killed directly by the fighting

Numerous human rights abuses have also been the result of the conflict, especially between different religious groups. It was estimated in 2015 that 417 of the country’s 436 mosques have been destroyed. Ethnic violence has also been observed, especially between the agriculturalists and nomads. In addition, many humanitarian and peacekeeping workers have experienced violence or had their facilities destroyed, which is certainly not helping the situation. The war in the CAR has had destabilising effects on many surrounding countries like Chad, the DRC, Sudan and South Sudan.

Not least of the negative effects of the war are the economic problems associated with an ongoing armed conflict within a country. The economy of the CAR is already one of the weakest in the world, with a total size of just $2.8 Billion in 2023. The economy is dominated by subsistence agriculture, and there are few other major industries, with the country exporting just $231 million worth of goods in 2022. Foreign investment and even foreign aid is hindered by a wide variety of structural problems, such as weak institutions, inadequate infrastructure, low social cohesion and of course the ongoing violence. The country was ranked 184th out of 190 countries in the Ease of Doing Business Index 2019.

Nations can only really grow through foreign investment, so if this is not possible, they will not succeed. The country is home to significant mineral and agricultural potential. If exploited properly, it could be invested in infrastructure and education which, alongside much-needed structural improvements, could improve the CAR’s prospects in attracting investment. If not, it could spark further strife that would hold the country down for decades to come. The roots of this situation are linked to the civil war, so probably the most important objective at the current stage is for a peaceful resolution to all hostilities. Whether this will be achieved is hard to say, and as more and more foreign powers like France and South Africa pull out of the conflict, there is no clear end in sight.

Conflict Resolution A wide variety of nations and organisations have run peacekeeping missions in the country. In 2008, the Economic Community of Central African States began the MICOPAX mission, however as the conflict intensified, efforts were taken up by the African Union-led MISCA in 2013. Once again, the African Union proved incapable of resolving the increasingly severe conflict, and they handed efforts to the MINUSCA mission operated by the United Nations. As of March 2024, it had 22,523 troops on the ground.

The focus of these efforts is to ensure humanitarian assistance and the rule of law, while also encouraging disarmament and demobilisation. Their troops generally act as police and paramilitary forces in areas not under state control. The capacity of MINUSCA's mission to achieve its stated goals of quelling the violence is blunted by a lack of infrastructure and resources, its inability to use force, and its general unpopularity and distrust with the CAR people due to allegations of police brutality and corruption. While the aims of peacekeeping missions are noble, they are rarely the full solution to a conflict.

Alternative Solutions Conflicts tend to fester in states with weak institutions. This refers to when the bureaucracy of a state is informal, fragile, constantly changing and generally not trusted by the public. An example is how the CAR Armed Forces quickly dissolved into separate factions after the beginning of the war in 2012. When this is the case, the government and all institutions aren’t as legitimate, which empowers rebel groups to spark conflict without significant backlash. Furthermore, when the government is not trusted, any acts taken by it are harder to implement.

The CAR is barely a functional state at the moment, with the central government only controlling roughly half of its recognised territory as of 2024. The first step in ending the conflict and stabilising the country is for the state to regain control of itself. An arms embargo on the country that has been in place since 2013 has been criticised for limiting the government’s ability to establish strong control. Removing this would open the door to the return of law and order, even if it led to more violence and atrocities in the short term. It is also likely that a new foreign power, such as the United States, should take a side on the issue and send troops in. While it would have a polarising effect, it would lead to an end to the war faster. It would also act as a warning to factions in other countries that are looking for violence that they will receive a response from that country, overall leading to less violence.

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